Todd steps out of the office and into the sunshine to share fresh insights on a market that’s holding steady – but may be gearing up for something bigger. From a key S&P breakout to surprising strength in defensive names, he connects the dots between gold, yields, and recovery signals you might be missing. Plus, a look inside his Active Ops portfolio and the shift from TradingAnalysis to AdrianAnalysis. What’s next? The charts are starting to speak.

Positions from the Active Ops portfolio now live in Savvy Trader – link below!

https://savvytrader.com/ToddGordon/active-opps?s=MzMwNjA6ODAyNw==

I give this market so much credit. With the softer CPI, we’re still only at a 37% chance of a July cut as FF futures keep pushing out the cuts, and the market is ok with it. As I’ve been saying for months, a 4 1/4 fed funds rate is probably where rates should be, considering the underlying health of this economy. If most investors could set aside their political biases, fortifying the confirmation bias from the constant barrage of traditional and social media messaging that tariffs are the sole driver of this market. Tariffs and politics are actually quite a small piece in the big picture, but they’re such catchy headline grabbers that increase the divisiveness. Remember, if it bleeds, it reads.

We’re in an AI revolution within the technological evolution in an economy that is focused on fiscal responsibility, embracing the deflationary forces of technology. Did you see Microsoft cutting headcount by 3%? Companies and our country are embracing the increased operating efficiencies of technology to increase margins. Look at our Palantir position. Now, if I could just find the best use of AI technology to help my U11 travel baseball team to get their throws, catches, and swings in line….sigh. Anyway, we could see new market highs soon.

Speaking of defense, Trump announced a deal with Saudi Arabia of a $600bn investment into the US in exchange for $142bn in weapons for the Saudis, double their annual defense budget. I’m sure Trump is trying to deter Iran and Russia from additional offenses while bringing additional investment in the US AI buildout.

Anyway, the portfolio is looking solid and having another very green day (screenshot attached), but with one little tripwire that I don’t feel comfortable with in here; 30.87% cash.

But, as I mentioned, those Fib retracements and daily moving average resistance zones were worrisome for me. But it looks like momentum carried us up and away, suggesting the V-bottom is in place and we’re headed to new highs. Remember that anything can happen on any day, nobody can see the future, and our job is to focus our energy on thoroughly assessing the now. Wasting energy predicting what should happen tomorrow usually just serves as an overly inflated view of our IQ, while at the same time showing low EQ. Watching closely and having a lot of fun here!

-Todd

P.S. – I KNOW I’m not a good writer, and for that I apologize. I ran it through Chat GPT to clean up grammar and sentence structure, but it just looses to much of my original voice so I wanted to keep it as is. Thanks for using Savvy Trader – for me, so far, I love it. It solves SO many issues we had running day-to-day operations at TradingAnalysis and it helps the transition over to AdrianAnalysis. Speaking of, we have a new website up – www.AdrianAnalysis.com There are still a few things to clean up, but go check it out.

Or, if you want real-time updates on the Active Opps portfolio, click here:

Big life news and big market moves!

We kick things off celebrating a special moment—my right hand man at AdrianAnalysis – Kyle just became a dad to a beautiful baby girl!

Then we dive into why UBER caught my eye this week following Google’s blow earnings and talk of autonomous driving:

*The future of autonomous robo-taxis and UBER’s position vs. Google’s Waymo
*A key technical breakout from a consolidation triangle
*Why I just bought UBER stock with real investor money in our firm, AdrianAnalysis

This is more than market talk—it’s how we make real investment decisions.

Todd Gordon, founder of AdrianAnalysis, joins CNBC’s ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss navigating the market volatility.

In this explosive market update, Todd Gordon dissects what may be the largest intraday reversal ever in the NASDAQ and S&P, triggered by a surprise 90-day tariff suspension. Todd gives you a behind-the-scenes look at how AdrianAnalysis launched its new Active Opps model – placing its first trades just before the news broke. Learn how institutional money surged in, how Palantir, Spotify, and Bitcoin are shaping up, and how the Active Opps portfolio is designed to act as a tactical ‘speedboat’ amid market chaos. If you’re looking for sharp insight and real-time positioning from a professional money manager, this one’s for you.

In this week’s video and PDF update, we cover the key market developments and our latest positioning. We also take a closer look at the growing impact of U.S. trade policy on global markets.

Download the PDF report here.

Don’t miss Kyle’s in-depth article on US Tariffs!

Tariffs aim to balance trade competition. A tariff is a tax on goods imported from other countries. Tariffs were a very effective tool for the US during the 1800s, and between 1861-1933 the US had one of the highest average tariff rates on manufactured imports in the world. They proved highly effective for the United States throughout the 1800s, and from 1861 to 1933, the U.S. maintained some of the world’s highest average tariff rates on manufactured imports. Following the New Deal in 1933 tariffs began to fade, giving way to income tax, sales tax, and property tax as primary government revenue sources.

U.S. trade policy has shifted dramatically over time. For decades, leaders like Presidents Clinton and Bush embraced free trade and globalism, with agreements such as NAFTA and China’s WTO entry opening the U.S. consumer economy to global markets. Now under President Trump’s leadership, the focus has made a 180-degree turn toward protectionism and tariff policy.

During President Trump’s first term, tariffs were largely limited to steel and aluminum and produced varied outcomes. The Economic Policy Institute found that these tariffs had a negligible impact on inflation with a 0.5% one-time price increase. On jobs, roughly 12,000 new jobs in steel and aluminum were produced, although critics argue retaliatory tariffs and higher costs for downstream industries caused more job losses than the jobs gained.

Under a free trade policy, U.S. manufacturers lost ground to cheaper imports for years. The U.S. textiles and apparel industry provides a stark example. Following NAFTA’s signing in 1994 and the elimination of tariffs, which previously averaged 10%, export-oriented factories sprang up near Mexico’s northern border (known as maquiladoras). Consequently, U.S. textile and apparel employment plummeted from 1.6 million in 1994 to 500,000 by 2010, a loss of over 1 million jobs. Conservative estimates attribute hundreds of thousands of these losses directly to NAFTA, as Mexico’s tariff-free access to the U.S. market fueled a surge in apparel exports, undercutting domestic producers.

Separately, many foreign governments subsidize specific industries to lower the cost of their goods. For instance, since joining the WTO in 2001, China’s government has heavily subsidized its tire industry, maintaining low production costs and flooding the U.S. market with inexpensive tires. This has undermined American manufacturers, forcing companies like Goodyear to shutter U.S. plants and relocate some production abroad. Absent a tariff policy to counteract these subsidized imports, the U.S. struggles to protect its domestic industries from such unfair competition.

So are are tariffs good, or bad? Supporters of tariffs claim they boost local manufacturing and bring in revenue. They also reduce reliance on foreign production.  For job creation in the U.S., higher import prices caused by tariffs often spark investment and create jobs in the U.S. History shows this worked before. As tariff threats loom, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC) have announced $100 billion investments to build plants in the US that would avoid tariffs. The hope with tariff policy is that the benefit (jobs and stronger domestic economy) will outweigh the cost (inflation). Both sides have a point. Tariffs are designed to benefit countries with a trade deficit like the U.S. has. Critics correctly argue that tariffs make consumers face higher prices and retaliatory tariffs, which have their own adverse effects. Tariffed items usually raise in price, at least in the short-term.

One key reality of U.S. trade policy is that the U.S. imports a lot more than it exports. This gap creates trade deficits. Below is the list of the ten countries whose positions are weakest concerning a potential trade war with the U.S. (ranked by current trade surplus):

• China $279 billion
• Mexico $152 billion
• Vietnam $104 billion
• Germany $83 billion
• Japan $71 billion
• Canada $67 billion
• Ireland $65 billion
• South Korea $51 billion
• Taiwan $47 billion
• Italy $44 billion

As the media has made clear, there are risks of a trade war between countries when trade policies shift. Yet, current indications suggest that many “deals” will be negotiated to reduce U.S. trade deficits with specific countries before tariffs are actually levied. In Trump’s first month in office, he has already announced tariffs on Mexico and China, rescinded such tariffs after negotiations, and re-introduced new larger tariffs on Mexico and China (presumably for future negotiations to follow in the same suit).

Tariffs aren’t a perfect solution. They aren’t a disaster either. They’re a tool with trade-offs. Used well, they can reshape trade flows and boost U.S. production capacity. If mishandled, they risk unsettling a vast global economy.

In parting, remember that most of the market reaction to tariffs is based on untested speculation and what-ifs. Disciplined investors who avoid knee jerk moves, stick to their risk comfort zone, and have cash reserves for investment may find significant opportunities amid the recent volatility.

Whether you’re aiming to build your first $100,000, secure your retirement, or look beyond yourself with legacy and charitable planning, engaging in financial planning with a Certified Financial Planner can improve your effectiveness in achieving your goals. And not having a financial plan, especially when things get stormy, can feel like trying to maneuver a ship without a helm.

As I go into my 10th year as a financial planner for individuals and families, here are the top reasons you need a written financial plan:

1. Guide Investment Decisions

A long-term perspective based on a written financial plan helps foster investment discipline. When markets are volatile, a well-structured plan keeps you focused on your long-term goals, not the day-to-day or even year-to-year fluctuations and headlines. Studies show that investors who work with financial planners often achieve better outcomes, not because the advisors necessarily pick better investments, but because they help investors make informed, strategic decisions consistently over time. A 2021 Vanguard study found investors with advisors grew their portfolios 3% more annually. When things get rocky, that’s the best time to call your advisor and go back to your plan.

2. Cash Flow and Budget Planning

Your journey to financial independence begins with managing your cash flow effectively. Whether you’re currently saving $5,000 per year or $500,000 a year, reviewing your saving strategy with an advisor can help you efficiently allocate resources today in order to achieve the wealth you want tomorrow. Putting together a personal balance sheet and cash flow statement can help you plan for the future more effectively. Long-term wealth accumulation usually comes down to saving and making your money work for you in the most tax-efficient way possible.

3. Retirement Decisions

As people approach retirement, there is often a behavioral switch that must be addressed when preparing to live off of savings and investments instead of a paycheck. I have seen it lead to poor results like worrying and bad investment decision making. Moreover, I have seen people second-guess their decision to retire from a financial needs standpoint, especially when the market tanks within a year of their retirement decision. A financial plan will provide the mathematical probability that your retirement and legacy goals are funded.

Completing your first financial plan can usually be accomplished in two to four meetings. Once it’s in place, revisiting it periodically or after major life changes keeps it aligned with your evolving goals.

When it comes to managing healthcare costs and building long-term savings, few tools offer the versatility and tax benefits of a Health Savings Account (HSA). Often underutilized, HSAs provide a unique opportunity not just to pay for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, but also to grow a tax-advantaged nest egg for retirement.

HSAs can be used to cover a broad array of health-related expenses. These including basic over-the-counter expenses, dental and vision care (exams, glasses, contacts), specific chiropractic and acupuncture treatments, and premiums for long-term care insurance up to IRS limits. Most HSA plans come with a debit card that you can use freely and as needed at your doctor’s office or pharmacy.

What sets HSAs apart from other accounts is their “triple tax advantage”: contributions are tax-deductible, funds grow tax-free, and withdrawals used for qualified medical expenses are also tax-free. There are currently no other account types we are aware of which offer all three of these tax advantages.

Furthermore, many HSAs offer investment options in stocks, bonds, or mutual funds. This allows you to invest your HSA balance for growth over time, creating a substantial, tax-free asset for the future.

For example, if a couple maximizes their HSA contributions each year, investing $8,300 annually at an 8% average return, their HSA could grow to roughly $784,024 over 30 years. In an account taxed at 15% with the same contribution rate and return, the account would be worth $656,421, over $100,000 less.

One unique feature of HSAs is the flexibility to reimburse yourself for medical expenses at any time. This can provide a great planning opportunity. For example, let’s say you have a medical expense today. Instead of using your HSA to pay for it now, you can choose to pay out-of-pocket, save your receipt, and keep your HSA funds invested. Later, perhaps years down the line, you can choose to withdraw money from your HSA to “reimburse” yourself for that past expense, essentially providing a tax-free distribution at your discretion up to the value of all un-reimbursed past expenses. This approach requires diligent record-keeping, so it’s helpful to store receipts for all medical expenses in a secure digital folder or dedicated file.

Once you reach age 65, HSAs become even more versatile. You can use them to cover non-medical expenses, although these withdrawals will be taxed as ordinary income, similar to a traditional IRA withdrawal. Qualified medical expenses remain tax-free after age 65, providing an effective way to manage healthcare costs in retirement. And, if you retire before becoming eligible for Medicare, HSA funds can even be used to pay for COBRA or other qualified health insurance premiums.

For those eligible, HSAs can serve as a powerful investment vehicle. If you’re enrolled in a high-deductible health insurance plan like most Americans are, you are eligible to open an HSA and start taking advantage of its benefits. In 2025, the IRS defines a high-deductible plan as one with a minimum health insurance deductible of $1,650 for individuals or $3,300 for families.

With thoughtful planning, an HSA can become a long-term asset in your financial toolkit. By maximizing your annual contributions, using its tax benefits strategically, investing for growth, and managing reimbursements effectively, you can build a lifelong reserve that supports both your health and financial well-being.

As we approach the end of the year, now’s the perfect time to evaluate your savings strategy. Whether you’ve been consistently contributing or still have room to make a few final deposits, year-end is an ideal time to maximize your accounts. It’s also a great opportunity to set a solid plan for the upcoming year.

For 2024, consider ramping up your contributions to fully maximize tax-advantaged accounts before the calendar year closes. For example, many 401(k) plans allow you to increase contributions to a high percentage in December to shovel more into your retirement savings. This can be a strategic move if you haven’t yet hit the annual limit. There are accounts like HSAs and IRAs that give you the option to contribute until the tax filing deadline, providing a bit of extra flexibility. But if you’re aiming to get ahead on next year’s savings goals, contributing any extra funds in your checking account now will give you a strong start in 2025.

Starting in 2025, retirement contribution limits are increasing, allowing many people to save even more on a tax-deferred basis:

• 401(k) Plan Contributions: The limit rises to $23,500, with an additional catch-up of $7,500 for those born before 1976. For individuals ages 60-63, SECURE 2.0 introduces an even higher catch-up amount of $11,250.
• HSAs: The contribution limits for HSAs increase in 2025, allowing you to set aside up to $4,150 for self-only coverage and $8,300 for family coverage. For individuals 55 and older, a catch-up contribution of $1,000 is still allowed. HSAs provide triple tax benefits: contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified medical expenses are also tax-free. HSA funds can be invested in equities. HSA funds that are not needed for qualified medical expenses can be withdrawn after age 65, although you will pay ordinary income taxes on it, similar to a traditional IRA withdrawal.
• Traditional and Roth IRAs: The contribution cap remains $7,000, with a $1,000 catch-up for those over 50. Roth IRA income limits are rising as well, phasing out at $236,000-$246,000 for couples and $150,000-$165,000 for singles and heads of household.

One of the best ways to maximize your retirement savings is through automatic monthly contributions. By setting aside a set amount each month, you’re essentially “paying your future self” before covering other expenses. This disciplined, automatic approach smooths out market fluctuations and consistently builds toward your long-term goals through dollar-cost averaging.

Layering your savings across various types of accounts can provide you with the best return and tax advantages. Here’s a priority list to consider:

1. Max Out Employer 401(k) Matching: If your employer offers a match, contribute enough to capture the full amount. This “free” money is one of the best returns you can get.
2. Investable Savings Accounts: Accounts like Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) and 529 education savings plans offer tax benefits and flexibility, making them powerful tools for a balanced financial strategy.
3. Non-matched 401(k) and IRA Savings: Go back to contribute the rest needed to reach the maximum for your 401(k). Additionally, make your annual Traditional IRA or Roth IRA contributions if your income is within the phase-out.
4. Brokerage (Taxable) Savings: Brokerage accounts provide ultimate flexibility for short-to-medium term financial needs as well as retirement investment savings. Though taxable, they’re an excellent addition for funding goals outside of retirement.

As the year wraps up, take a moment to evaluate your contributions, assess the progress you’ve made, and make any needed adjustments for an even stronger financial future. Even small tweaks to your contribution strategy now can lead to significant gains down the road. Remember this line from Warren Buffett: “Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving.” By putting your future first, you’re setting yourself up for financial security and freedom. Happy saving!